Caveat on So Called “Scientific Methodology” on Surveys

Surveys are not only used during elections. Surveys are used daily by most marketing and advertising departments of large corporations and conglomerates. Branding is based on preferences by customers or brands are created according to the needs of the market.

In this 2016 election season, there are surveys that tout their “methodologies”. These may sound authoritative but once dissected they cannot stand up to close scrutiny.

This observation and insight by a Statistics graduate of the University of the Philippines deserves careful perusal and analysis.

Days are numbered for the much awaited 2016 National and Local Election. Surveys are here and there saying that this are the result of the surveys they made, etc. And so, after delivering the results to the people, many were just contented with the result while there are some who reacts and disagree and point out their reasons.

This is why David Yap, a statistician, and graduate from the University of the Philippines School of Statistics, became viral after stating his points about the 'Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey'.

As per this guy,

I am a statistician. I am a graduate of the University of the Philippines School of Statistics. I do not approve of the methodology of the Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey. More importantly, I detest their use of Statistical methodologies to lend credence to their obviously flawed methodology. It obfuscates its lack of credibility by invoking Statistical methodologies that are not easily understood by many Filipinos. In my opinion, it is a blatant and deplorable misuse of the Science of Statistics.

(Hear more from him by reading his entire Facebook post below about the issue)

Few hours after he posted his message on his Facebook wall, it went viral and as of the moment, it now reached 1000 shares and still counting.

This is what David Yap posted on his Facebook wall about the 'Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey'. Kindly read.
I am a statistician. I am a graduate of the University of the Philippines School of Statistics. I do not approve of the methodology of the Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey. More importantly, I detest their use of Statistical methodologies to lend credence to their obviously flawed methodology. It obfuscates its lack of credibility by invoking Statistical methodologies that are not easily understood by many Filipinos. In my opinion, it is a blatant and deplorable misuse of the Science of Statistics.

The Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey claims that it has a margin of error of +/- 3%. The implication here is that the results of the survey are off by at most three percentage points. People are led to believe that the survey has accurately estimated the lower bound and upper bound of the vote share of each candidate. Given their latest results this would suggest that Sen. Poe has a range of 31% to 37% and Mayor Duterte has a range of 28% to 34%. Here is an explanation as to why I find it absurd.

Students of Statistics know that the margin of error in sampling is often computed as the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size. The Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey had a grand total of 1,200 possible respondents. SWS has not divulged the number of actual respondents of their latest survey so let us use the sample size in the March 22 survey - 806. If you take the reciprocal of the square root of 806 you'll get 3.52% (Right of the bat SWS rounded their margin of error down - but let us not quibble over relatively trivial details such as this). Notice that the margin of error does not use the size of the population as a variable (It does not matter if the voting population is 1 million of 50 million). It may come as a surprise to many of you that this isn't the crux of the issue.

The crux of the issue is that the validity of the aforementioned margin of error depends on the sampling methodology. The margin of error will only hold if the survey is conducted using an unbiased methodology. Put simply, the margin of error will only hold if the survey results are generated from an unbiased sample. What exactly is an unbiased sample? An unbiased sample is one wherein every element of the population has an equal chance of being selected. I repeat: An unbiased sample is one wherein every element of the population has an equal chance of being selected.

Here's the rub: in order for the margin of error to be credible, the underlying sample has to represent the entire Philippines. How could it represent the entire Philippines when millions upon millions of validated voters were not given a chance to be selected?

Herein lies the test as to whether or not the SWS Bilang Pilipino Mobile Survey should be believed. Herein is a simple question that would tell us whether or not we should lend credence to the results being promoted by this survey: Was every validated Filipino voter given an equal chance of being selected?

According to the SWS Bilang Pilipino primer the survey uses a 'nationally representative sample of 1,200 validated voters'. The question here becomes: Did SWS draw its 1,200-strong sample from the entire roster of validated voters? After all, each and every validated voter has to be given an equal chance of selection. There is no indication, at all,that SWS sampled from the entire voter registry (As a segue ask yourselves: would COMELEC have given SWS, a private entity, free reign over the ENTIRE voter registry? Hmm.).

This suggests that SWS did NOT give all validated voters a chance to be selected. If this is indeed the case then the SWS Bilang Pilipino survey should not be trumpeted as a credible survey with a very small margin of error - because the sample was BIASED.

It gets better (worse), SWS generates its samples according to strata - or groupings. For the SWS Bilang Pilipino Mobile Survey it used four strata - NCR, Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. There is nothing wrong with using strata and employing stratified random sampling. There is, however, something very wrong about giving these strata equal weights. For its Bilang Pilipino sample, SWS gave NCR, Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao 300 samples each. This distribution means that NCR, Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are all given equal weights. The problem here is that the distribution of the Filipino population - and consequently the Filipino voting population is not spread equally across the four strata! Here are approximate values: Balance of Luzon has 44%-45%, Visayas has 20%, Mindanao has 23%-24%, and NCR has the remainder. Putting all of these together we see that Balance of Luzon is severely under-weighted and under-represented and NCR is severely over-weighted and over-represented. BIAS.

The choice of the level of stratification is also dubious given that geography plays a key role in determining the outcome of national elections. National politicians often have home provinces and regions that would lend them tremendous amounts of support during elections. Choosing our island groups as the stratification level ignores the highly nuanced dynamics of local Philippine politics. You do not need to be a political scientist of statistician to realize that this is a poor way of distributing your sample. It is, for example, distinctly possible to generate a Balance of Luzon sample without Ilocos Norte. It is distinctly possible to generate a Balance of Luzon sample without Camarines Norte/Sur. It is distinctly possible to generate a Visayas sample without Capiz. It is distinctly possible to generate a Mindanao sample without Davao del Sur. The choice of stratification assumes that voting preferences within each island group are largely homogeneous. It assumes that there is little to no heterogeneity within each island group.

But wait, there's more!

The SWS Bilang Pilipino Mobile survey is an opt-in survey. As I indicated earlier, the actual sample could be smaller than the indicated sample. The people who were given mobile phones to respond to text prompts could choose NOT to answer the text prompts. Given the nature of the survey they cannot re-sample to fill-up the desired or indicated sample size! This is obviously another source of bias!

It is also of note that respondents can only respond from 7:00 am to 12:00 noon. If you fail to respond during that window you are excluded from the actual sample. If you forgot to charge the phone, if you could not get a signal, if you were busy at work, if you were sick, it doesn't matter - you are excluded. Bias, bias, bias!

The survey serves no discernible function. It provides no discernible benefit. One can even make a compelling argument that the SWS Bilang Pilipino Mobile survey is designed to condition the minds of voters and establish trends that would legitimize or sanitize fraudulent election outcomes. I urge you: Do not lend this survey any ounce of credibility.

Voters should not choose their candidates on the basis of who is 'winnable' and who is 'not winnable'. Your choices should not be about who can or cannot win. Elections should be about visions, platforms, and track records. Do NOT reduce the elections into a popularity contest wherein the winners are not chosen based on their capacity to govern - but rather by their perceived popularity. Do NOT cheapen our democracy.

Do yourself and the Philippine democracy a favor: Do not let this survey affect your choices. Think for yourself.
Source: http://www.allthingspinoy.com/2016/04/up-graduate-statistician-shares-insights-about-bilang-pilipino-sws-mobile-survey.html

Billboards : An Industry of Congestion

BEING stuck in traffic has become part of everyday life in the Philippines — the cost people pay to enjoy the benefits of city living.

But the frustrations of many can be a gold mine to some — and it’s hard to imagine an industry benefiting more from road congestion, with the captive audience it creates, than billboard companies.

“Traffic is a main contributor to the growth of out-of-home (OOH) media because as people are stuck in the cars and in public transportation, the more they will be away from traditional media,” said Lloyd Tronco, Executive Director of the Philippine Center for Out-Of-Home Media Research and Science (PhilCOuRSe), in an interview with BusinessWorld.

For Mr. Tronco, the OOH media industry, which is behind the billboards on major thoroughfares, is “fueled by traffic,” and that until the congestion problems are solved, OOH “will become more relevant.”

THE ECONOMICS OF BILLBOARDS

The average travel time on EDSA, from Monumento to Taft Ave., is 95 minutes, which can rise to 180 minutes in peak hours. Data from the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the the Land Transportation Office suggest that clogged roads in the Philippine capital cost the economy P2.4 billion a day, or around P200 per capita.

Part of the reason for this congestion is that hardly anyone ever stays home. Astudy published by PhilCOuRSe reveals that only 14% of Filipinos stay at home 100% of the day while the 86% are out and about, creating the traffic that helps make OOH a viable alternative to other forms of media.

“And even for the 14% who say they remain at home, within the span of the time they are at home, a quick run to the corner sari-sari store will expose them to an outdoor ad. Though not necessarily a big billboard on EDSA, it is still OOH media,” Mr. Tronco said.

Billboards are nothing fancy technology-wise — in fact they’re thought to be one of the earliest forms of advertising. They took off sometime in the late 18th century, when lithography made the commercial printing of large signs possible.

Yet the old dog still has has a lot of tricks in it — in the Philippines OOH media spending commanded 11.2% of total advertising expenditure in 2013 — significantly higher than the global average of 7.4%. That 2013 represents a steady rise from 7% in 2007. But the conditions for the rise of OOH were sown long before, in the dramatic rise of vehicle ownership over the last three decades, from a mere 446,000 in 1980 to 1.9 million in 2010.

Beyond vehicle ownership and congestion, could there be cultural reasons behind the popularity of the medium?

“Pinoys love billboards,” Mr. Tronco said. “Even at the turn of the century, you will find billboards posted on the top of stores in Binondo and Escolta... It is the quickest way to tell the public that you are selling something.”

“Add to the fact Pinoys are artists. The popularity of billboards is tied in with the fact that many sign painters could come up with good signs in a few days. Recently, the quick turnaround in terms of production due to digital tarpaulin printing made it even more popular,” he added.

Remrick E . Patagan, Research Director of the Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis (IDEA), believes the growth of the OOH “billboard” industry hinges on the natural reliance on visual focal points, especially when traveling.

“Because people tend to rely more on their sense of sight, visual forms of advertising becomes more appealing. They (the billboards) also have an advantage in terms of being seen by a wide range of people over multiple times,” he told BusinessWorld via e-mail. “This helps create lasting impressions that can be reinforced through repeated visual contact.”

He also shares Mr. Tronco’s insight that “traffic congestion likely plays a large role in the growth of out-of-home advertising ” as slow speeds on the roads force commuters to be consumers of OOH media.

“Traffic congestion leads to slower vehicular speeds and long commuting times, essentially creating a captive market of commuters that can be exposed to visual advertisement,” Mr. Patagan said.

He added that contributing factors would be “population density, with Metro Manila having one of the highest in the world, and lack of regulation.”

ON REGULATION

The process of erecting billboards, according to Zeno Martinez, Business Innovations Manager at NextMedia Advertising & Communications, is a collaboration between the vendor and the advertiser.

“The billboard is owned by a vendor. The vendor puts up the structure then leases the property — he sells it to the agency or the advertiser,” he told BusinessWorld in an interview.

The contracts for billboards, according to Mr. Martinez used to be standardized at one year, but terms have shortened as advertisers become more aggressive with their campaigns. “Usually the practice is a three-month campaign whether it’s for a new consumer product, real estate, etc.” 

When it comes to regulation, however, there are no clear guidelines on the installation and operation of billboards, and the current arrangements mean the industry is largely self-regulating.

With the closing of the Advertising Board of the Philippines in October, much of the regulation fell onto the lap of the Outdoor Advertising Association of the Philippines (OAAP) — formed by advertisers in 1964 to promote the growth of the industry. 

But according to Mr. Tronco, who is also a member of the OAAP, the government needs to step in with laws to govern the industry.

“A Magna Carta is needed for everything to be clearer because right now, the billboard operators are building on the basis of obtaining building permits and following the building code. But there are no clear stipulations pertaining to billboards. It’s a gray area,” he added.

It was an unexpected event from 2006 — typhoon Milenyo (international name: Xangsane) — that helped tighten up building standards after the toppling of more than 20 billboards.

“Things became stricter. Whenever there’s a storm or typhoon nearing, we broadcast it to the members of the OAAP to take them (the billboards) down,” said Mr. Martinez.

“The supplier bear the costs of putting them down but the advertisers don’t charge extra for the lost exposure time. By now, the advertisers 
understand that it has to be rolled down because if they topple, they’ll be the ones to draw the flak from social media,” he added.

Much of the controversy about billboards involves allegations that they constitute a traffic hazard, and that the space used for billboards could have been used for other things, which Mr. Tronco disputes

“There is no substantial data that will show that an accident was caused by billboards. In fact, the distractions of mobile devices are more dangerous. Nowadays, people text or check their Facebook while driving.”

Mr. Martinez concurs. “If you track accident data, the main causes are reckless bus drivers, taxi drivers, driving while texting, etc. The targets of billboards are mostly commuters or passengers, not the drivers themselves. In fact, I think, psychologically, billboards provide relaxation for those stuck in traffic.”

As for the space argument, Bank of the Philippine Islands Associate Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa believes that “In terms of efficiency, I would have to say it is given that the space cannot be used for any other purpose, save for advertising.”

For his part, Mr. Patagan says: “Whether the use of billboards and other forms of outdoor advertising represents an efficient use of space will largely depend on how society values visual spaces. Those values will in turn be determined by physical, cultural, and socioeconomic conditions.”

He added that “the prevalence of billboards and outdoor advertising is premised on the assumption that visual space is best used for commercial purposes, with corresponding economic benefits for both advertisers and owners of the properties where the ads are located. But others might value clear urban sight lines over visual ads, for instance.”

- Agbayani P. Pingol, BusinessWorld University Edition Vol. 1 Issue 19

Media Outlook 2015 : OOH Measurement Notes

There is no doubt that the emergence of the smartphone has created much impact in the lives of today's urban consumer.  It has made our lives much easier but at the same time a little bit stressful too.  Every now and then a red circle with a white number in it pops up in our screen indicating the number of messages or notifications we have to deal with in the growing number of apps on our smartphones.  And because of this, more people are looking down on their phones instead of paying attention to what is out on the street.

This phenomenon of looking down too much on a 5 inch screen inthe palm of one's hand has an impact too on the daily net viewership of a billboard.  For this reason, it is imperative that media agencies who herald their prowess in audience measurement of Out-Of-Home media should really examine their current criteria for determining daily net viewership of an OOH site or panel.

In my recent talk at Media Outlook 2015 at the Fairmont Hotel in Makati, I cited the increasing cost of OOH media.  In this respect, since OOH media costs are rising, agencies should be very discerning in terms of audience delivery for a particular site prior to recommendation to client.  Clients and advertisers likewise should be very sure of their purchases in OOH media.  It  pains me to see that so much media money is being thrown away by some clients simply by having their advertisements in OOH sites which were not measured properly.

Thus in 2015, agencies who do have their OOH measurement program will really have to introduce a new factor or criterion given the time OTS audiences are looking down on their phones.  With this, a better number of daily net viewership is derived.

For queries on OOH Media Measurement and Out-Of-Home Media in the Philippines, the author may be reached at oohresource ( @ ) gmail.com

Media Outlook 2015 Speaker : Lloyd Tronco

Lloyd Tronco

Executive Director
PhilCourse

Lloyd Tronco is a stalwart in outdoor advertising in the Philippines. His first brush with outdoor advertising and Out-Of-Home media, started 30 years ago having grown up in a family business which provided billboard space in the Visayas and Mindanao. Having worked his way up in the family business, he became the General Manager of Tronco Advertising, a company based in Bacolod by 1994.

In 2001, when Out-Of-Home media began gaining popularity in the Philippines due to the advent of digital tarpaulin printing, Lloyd Tronco was hired by McCann Erickson Philippines’ media unit, UniversalMcCann to be part of a team specializing in out-of-home media. At UniversalMcCann, he handled the Out-Of-Home media requirements of the agency including that of Coca-Cola, Cathay Pacific, Mastercard, Philip Morris, and Globe Telecom, until early 2005.

Following the stint with UniversalMcCann, he set up a consultancy which developed the business of OOH media vendors and at the same time serving the Out-Of-Home media needs of various media agencies.  He currently heads the Philippine Center for Out-Of-Home Media Research and Science (PhilCourse), which is the repository for information on the OOH media industry.